As Year-End Approaches, Rare Earth Demand Remains Weak: What Is the Price Outlook? [SMM Analysis]

Reviewing November, the prices of Pr-Nd oxide and Pr-Nd alloy both fell by 2.6% within the month, while the price of dysprosium oxide declined at a relatively faster rate, with a decrease of nearly 5%.

At the beginning of the month, driven by a slight increase in the listing prices of China Northern Rare Earth, market confidence was somewhat boosted, and Pr-Nd prices showed a slight fluctuation upward in the early part of the month. However, this optimism was short-lived. With the continued sluggish downstream demand and insufficient order releases, Pr-Nd prices continued to fluctuate downward. By mid-November, influenced by market news, Pr-Nd prices experienced a rapid decline.

According to an SMM survey, the current downstream magnetic material enterprises' order prices converted to Pr-Nd alloy prices are roughly 480,000-490,000 yuan/mt. However, some small magnetic material enterprises have poor order reception, with some not even fully booked for December. In contrast, top-tier enterprises have a more optimistic order situation, with one top-tier enterprise revealing that its production schedule is already planned until March next year.

Currently, with the continuous decline in rare earth raw material prices, market sentiment is noticeably sluggish. Downstream enterprises have weak stocking intentions, and most magnetic material companies choose to purchase as needed while maintaining 1-2 months of raw material inventory. Even as the year-end approaches, market demand has not shown significant growth. Most industry insiders hold a pessimistic view of future rare earth market prices, and the overall trading atmosphere remains subdued.